In December 2002, I wrote an article for SearchNetworking at Techtarget about ten predictions for 2003 – Greg Ferro’s 2003 predictions. I stumbled across the article recently & was struck by just how many of these predictions are still valid & somewhat accurate. Let score how accurate I was:
Security will continue to the MOST BORING issue, again & again & again…
In 2013, IT Security is still boring. In a decade we have seen the rise & fall of the CISSP certification & replaced with “lock picking” skills picked up at security conferences. Yeah, the security folks are really a piece of work.
Firewalls & IDS. Plus some process. Security = boring.
Also, consider how many security failures have occurred in the last decade. Massive data breaches, online defacing, security vendor RSA got thoroughly hacked & todays it is the “IT security department” of US government, the NSA. To date no organisations have gone out of business or suffered significant loss as a result of a security failure. In fact, they are often more successful than ever before. Look at RSA Security whose 2-factor tokens were seriously compromised but now reporting significant growth for its owner, EMC.
Wireless networking will be continue to be massively over-hyped because it’s the only fun thing in the market.
In 2003, wireless networking was a “big thing”. Ten years later, the wireless networking industry has solved most technology problems & is being rewarded with mainstream adoption. Technology that works is always a success. It seems that even in 2003 I was lamenting to miserable lack of innovation & progress in networking & noting that wireless networking was one of the few exciting technologies. I have the view that wireless continues to innovate successfully even when lumbered with the IEEE standards process. Amazing.
Wireless still has massive expectations & growth potential with the rise of mobile devices. Also, it’s still fun.
Performance doesn’t matter anymore (thanks AMD!)
If I remember correctly, 2003 was the year that AMD released some x86-compatible CPUs that outperformed the Intel CPUs of the time. Although there have been months when performance doesn’t matter for standalone/bare metal servers, performance is still a limitation for virtualization.
Citrix/Terminal Server is not a very good idea. Everyone will finally work that out this year & begin using the Web.
Virtual desktops & video conferencing both continue to promise a lot & deliver little. In 2003, Citrix was not a good idea & the web has been hugely successful. The last few years say VDI finally get some attention but now VDI is losing traction to tablets with cloud applications. Citrix/Terminal Server is still a niche technology even a decade later.
Thin Client / Virtual Desktops was, is & will always be a niche technology.
Security consultants are all sharks, smart sharks some of them, but still sharks.
Result: Correct. Don’t even try & argue the point. You just can’t.
The Big Four won’t be so big next year, because smaller companies deliver better results & actually know what they are talking about (instead of wearing shiny suits that bill in 6-minute intervals).
Big Companies are buying smaller companies in greater quantities than ever before. In 2003 I didn’t understand how startups created innovation that delivered new products & was then purchased by big companies who promptly put them through a sausage machine that turned them into products sold by shiny suits that bill in 6 minute increments.
In 2003, my employer was attempting to bill engineering time in 6 minute increments as part of an ISO9001 quality assurance push which was the current fashion for MBAs. We all hated it. It didn’t work because the Microsoft software they used for time sheets was horribly bad. (ISO9001 and Total Quality failed miserably so those same MBAs now push ISO27001).
HP will work it out, thus forcing Dell to change its model.
I can’t remember what led me to this statement but it would be fair to say that neither HP or Dell have changed much in the last decade.
IBM will keep doing whatever it is it does & not be challenged by anyone.
IBM has spent a decade enriching itself by transferring wealth from its customers. The last two years show some signs of revenue strain as the cloud has impacted revenues. Equally, very few people understand the IBM business model and it keeps on doing it.
Microsoft will be abused by just about everyone.
There are very few people who like Microsoft. Their products remain, at best, acceptable but mostly mediocre.
Microsoft will continue to deserve it.
When Ballmer announced his eventual retirement recently, there were very few voices declaring their disappointment. Microsoft continues to enjoy the fruits of an incumbent & proprietary platform while it’s customers are becoming more restless & many are moving into the cloud.
The EtherealMind View
Ten predictions for the year 2003. By my reckoning, seven of them are still valid ten years later.
What does it mean ? I don’t know. You get to have your own opinions. Writing them down and reviewing them helps me to remember that very little is truly new in technology, we just repeat old technology dressed up in new clothes.
RFC 1925 Rule 11: Every old idea will be proposed again with a different name and a different presentation, regardless of whether it works.