Ivan Pepelnjak has made a presentation available at [Slideshare - Content over IPv6 - No Excuses]. One slide particularly caught my attention:
It’s timely reminder that the IPocalypse is going happen quite slowly. Each step is inevitable but none of the them are the final step.
For example, once the IANA runs out of addresses, the RIR’s will still have IPv4 to allocate. But they will run out and then your ISP will still have addresses. It’s probably certain that ISP’s / Service Provider / Carriers will be hoarding addresses so there will still be some IP addresses.
And then, your own company probably doesn’t need new addresses every year. Some will, most won’t. All this adds up to a slow, gradual, running down extinction. It’s not a big bang event. It’s not a once-in-a-lifetime experience. And it’s human nature to ignore the slow things until it’s too late.
By the time we REALLY run out of addresses, it’s going to be “cry wolf once too often”, that is, we are all tired of hearing about IPv4 exhaustion already, and there is still two more years before the final impact. If you are lucky, your company probably doesn’t need a new Internet connection in 2012 so it might not be until 2013 or even 2014 that you will have the problem.
There are no answers to this of course, just that the IPocalypse has a planned date in 2012. You should be planning for it, of course, but stop listening to people crying wolf. If you are in Enterprise then 2012 is the year that IPv6 should be on your agenda.
I’m betting that your CIO still won’t care until the reality comes in so it’s lot of crying wolf for the next two years.
Other Posts in A Series On The Same Topic
- Why Allocating a /64 is Not Wasteful and Necessary (23rd January 2011)
- IPv6 - /48 allocation in /64 chunks - that's a lot of addresses (21st January 2011)
- IPocalypse: What's next for the 'End of the Internet' ? (20th January 2011)
- The IPocalyse is Nigh - Forced Allocation of IPv4 to RIRs next week ? (19th January 2011)
- IETF IPv6 address allocation policy being updated. (12th January 2011)
- Scheduling the IPocalypse (25th November 2010)