Does your team all work from an office, or do they mostly work remotely? I don’t have a landline phone at home, and were I at a job that permitted remote work, I certainly wouldn’t get one. However, since I spend most of my work time in the office, I greatly appreciate having a separate phone number to give out to people who I really don’t want to talk to. They can ring my desk phone all day long and I don’t have to answer unless I want to. I certainly wouldn’t be a happy camper if I had no desk phone and only had a cell number to publish on my business cards.

Plus, my cell phone battery is nearly dead by the time I get home even without talking on it. I’d have to leave the thing permanently plugged in if it were my only phone. In that case, I may as well be tied to a desk phone – I find it much less convenient to be tethered to an outlet (those chargers are always way too short) than to be tethered to a desk phone. At least if I take the majority of my calls on my desk phone, I can forward my calls to my cell phone if I need to step away and am expecting a call.

I must admit that it will take a while that you see there is no demand of IP PABX. I think these days we have no choice but “IP based PABX”.
I haven’t see anyone buying any old style PABX.

I remember the days when I installed a few of Alcatel 4400 PABX with 40,000 users in each of them. I was told by the company not to tell anything to the company’s staff. The reason for that was to eat money out of company every year as a maintenance contract.

Well , IP TELEPHONY is not like that. You get documentation about everything and its open in each IPTEL provider’s site.

Now you see how people’s mentality is changing in the IP world vs traditional PABX world?

I’m certified in CCIE voice (#21569) but I don’t really advocate Cisco Only solution. I used to work on Soft-switches for teleco’s and then now and then Cisco IPTEL solution. But when I see another voice guy doing cisco voip stuffs, he have no clue about Class5 softswitch. anyhow, I know there are other smarter VOIP vendor out there who just don’t have guts to hire good sales people.

So what do you guys think that we should focuss apart from VOIP? – Cloud computing I believe?

-Push Bhatkoti
Sydney

Sad to admit but a majority of people in the United States probably cannot name more that 25 countries and capitol cities. These are the same people who are supposed to wake and change overnight?

In the United States, people are still not very cosmoppolitan. I’d say only about 20% or really a lot less of people in the US have ever been abroad outside of the US military. Seriously, I’d gather to say in some rural communities it is not that rare to find a few souls left who may have never even left their own state.

That’s the United States. The U.S. may like to portay itself as a world power, the reality is the average U.S. citizen is very much into the United States, his or her state, city or town, community, church, and family. That is not everyone but that is a lot of people.

I find that odd too as I’m very techie, been to other countries, speak other languages, and have generally traveled abroad on my own dime.

I’m in Orlando and I know most techies don’t have home phones. I don’t know a single business that does not outside of “home-based businesses and consequently these businesses are more likely to have a land line – call a sense of “presence”.

There is a certain feeling about “existance, substance, and being in business” that a telephone and a business address portray to the people in the USA.

Without it people usually forget whom they are dealing with. Most business still may not even have a web presence at all or not much more than a page or two if they do have that. That’s the USA – the majority.

These people will change. No doubt. Will it be in 5 or 10 years – I don’t think it will happen that quickly – 15 or 20? Another matter and who can say for sure.

20 years ago I saw commercials with Video and Telephones.

2007/2008/2009 – I saw businesses really starting to use Video Conferencing finally.

2007 it was rarely used even though we had it at a Fortune 500 company.

2008 it was being sold to small businesses – well marketed anyway.

2009 it is being used daily at my own company in nearly 40 conferencing room across the enterprise but is still not really on the desktop outside of testing and novelty.

2010 is the year I bought 3 VT Advantage Units and 2 7985G for my own home network.

I still think IPT is “THE HOTTEST” skillset on the market and the best paying for Engineer who can handle the whole solution.

The flip is that the phone guy at a company may not be earning the highest salary even if he’s not into mostly every thing else.

Guys like myself who are multi-talented with an Enterprise consultative skillset have the means to take the best advantage of the current situation.

Guys who are strictly Voice are great with Cisco Partners but may limited usage in most Campus/Enterprise networks – maybe topping out at 60-90k and a small measure better if a manager or supervisor.

I know Avaya guys lucky to be doing about 40-55k with IP or only whatever Avaya tells them is IP.

The world will change and the US will lead in many areas but the majority of Americans are still not quite as technically advanced as they could be as a population. Maybe later.

First, that your condition, and your experience is consistent with the entire IP Telephony marketplace. Just because the environment you live and work in doesn’t appear to embrace new technology, does not mean that something will intervene and force them to that change.

For example, ten years ago, would you have predicted that cheques would no longer be the main form of payment for utility bills ? And by your argument, no one would never have moved to online billing because no one is using online billing. [false logic]

Further, you show your ignorance of the global marketplace by pointing out the limitations of the American Mobile phone system. The problems you experience are apparently typical of America, but not the rest of the world. America is only part (albeit a significant part) of the total market. So if globally 30% of market moves away from IP Telephony, then America will certainly follow. Example: American Telco’s are moving to 3G as a global standard instead of the status quo.

In my IT team, from a survey of sixty people, only twenty have a landline phone. Everyone uses their mobile as the primary telephone. By that standard, your experience isn’t the same.

And as I’ve said before, Call Centres are a niche market. Not really a significant impact on the overall space. Note also that call centres are losing their relevance as the Internet replaces many of their business functions. I am led to understand that American consumers are very focussed on call centres, but other cultures don’t have the same emphasis (my interpretation).

Second, your career choices such as studying CCIE Voice, is a 20 year decision, maybe an entire life decision. You have already said that “Granted that is changing too”, do you really want to bet your career and life on that ?

Now with that said I use a mobile phone and no longer have a home phone either. However, my Blackberries (and I carry two of them) do not always get perfect reception – perhaps this will change one day. Maybe not.

While some of us are very mobile and my job is a perfect example of this – 70-80% of the people have one office every day to go to work to.

Many offices are not as liberal with their “work from home” policies. Many just don’t have it at all. Different generation and values. Granted that is changing too.

I’ll give you it in that we are a lot more mobile but a large portion of people are still quite “old-fashioned” and us techies are just that top-tier and techies.

If I walk down my street, I’ll bet you everyone here has a phone in their house but me – there are about 200 houses in my neighborhood.

Even the road warrior’s family will still have the tradidional phone.

Most offices require the same.

Very provocative post. You forgot to mention open source vendors like Asterisk cutting into the market share as well. Also I know many small businesses who have already switched to skype as their office communication system.

But as for large enterprises I don’t see mobile phones replacing desk phones. What about the question of wireless reception in office buildings? And how about data privacy?
This debate also seems reminiscent of the wireless vs. wired Ethernet debate and I have yet to see a company run their mission critical systems over their wireless network.

Either way, I hope you’re wrong, because I just started my journey towards the CCIE Voice. In case you’re interested http://bit.ly/7mRggl.

I referring to a trader who gets a tip, or doubles down with CDO’s on the side, or bets on a betting exchange using their mobile phone.

Thats not my experience. I work in the energy industry, at an electric control center. All calls to/from the power plants, and the state are recorded. Those have nothing to do with trading, but because they are SOX related transactions (spin up/spool down).

I realize you are from the UK. We have a completely different set of laws in the US, called Sarbanes-Oxley, that impose completely different requirements than in the UK. No trader in the US would do trading on a mobile phone, for they would lose their job in an instant for violating SOX compliance.

2 – Again, a niche marketplace. I’m not talking about the end of IP telephony, just a massive reduction between thirty to sixty percent as most people choose mobile handsets.

FWIW, the recording of phone calls is moving to trading calls only. Proof of insider trading by phone is pointless when every trader has a mobile phone or five in their pocket.

3 – Let me assure you that mainframe are niche. A very profitable niche of a good size, but compared to the total spend in the world on Intel servers still just a niche. And it isn’t growing much, if at all.

CDR by phone number is useless, but for humans to interpret the bill only.

What about for companies that only provide one number to the world? So all calls look like they originated from the same number to the telco. That makes CDR from the telco USELESS.

Not true. Most enterprises dont get itemized bills. They get a one page invoice.

2) Most com≠pan≠ies donít care about legal require≠ments. Only a very small num≠ber of com≠pan≠ies would need this fea≠ture and that doesnít make a bil≠lion dol≠lar market.

Try telling that to the SEC. See what they have to say about that. Ask them about a guy named Madoff, or even better, Allen Stanford.

3)”Mainframes are a niche market”

I dont know what world you live in, but in my IT world, the mainframe is anything but niche. Its a billion dollar market. There are over 10,000 mainframes still in existence. Thats hardly a niche.

2) Most companies don’t care about legal requirements. Only a very small number of companies would need this feature and that doesn’t make a billion dollar market.

3) I’m not predicting the end of the PBX, either legacy/TDM or IP. Just the fact that it will become a niche market for specialist purposes (such as companies who are obliged to maintain their own records, call centres, hospitals, and so on. ) And indeed, Mainframes are a niche market which is a good analogy.

4) As a niche market, IP Voice won’t be a “hot skill” and certified IP Voice people won’t be as valuable as they are today if at all.

The problem can be found in Federal Rule of Civil Procedure 26(a)(ii):

(ii) a copy ó or a description by category and location ó of all documents, electronically stored information, and tangible things that the disclosing party has in its possession, custody, or control and may use to support its claims or defenses, unless the use would be solely for impeachment;

In order to have a legal defense, you have to have some method of accountability. The only way to have accountability is thru things like CDR, etc. As long as the law REQUIRES disclosure of “tanglible things” (like phone numbers) and “electronically stored information” (like CDR) that a party may use to support its defense, the PBX/VOIP systems are here to stay.

Thank you for the intitial post, and follow ups, BTW, it is good to read your perspective.

That is, if you take away thirty percent of all fixed line phones and replace them with mobiles), then the entire IP Telephony industry will collapse to a niche market for specific purposes. You can cite all the specific cases you like such as Hospitals, Helplines, Call Centres, Telephone Marketing …. whatever.

At the end of the day, I believe that sixty percent, or more, of workers will use mobile phones exclusively for professional communications. Your telco wants that to happen (but not yet) so they can ‘value add’ to a phone line and will find ways to make it happen.

I know the US is reasonably slow to pick up on changes in telecommunications because of the regulated industry and government mandated monopoly, but the change has already started. The silent majority are already doing it. How many executives and marketing/sales actually use their fixed line today ?

Not many.

I regularly deploy on premise conferencing specifically for customers to eliminate the cost of hosted conferencing, and the audio quality is great.

“CDR have no mean≠ing if your phone cost is fixed. Who cares how much it costs ? And in most cases, who cares who you called ?”

Attorneys (lawyers) need this for client billing. Sales teams need this to confirm their staff are doing what they are supposed to do. Employees making outbound calls they shouldn’t to their ex-wife to harass her need to be identified, and the evidence used for termination, etc. Plenty of reasons companies need CDR readily accessible.

Might not be any PBX’s left in Europe, but here in the states, they will remain for quite some time. All labor markets are local, anyway, unless you are interested in moving.

OTH, in the Europe, Voice is NOT in demand and doesn’t pay so well as there are enough engineers around. Top engineers still do very well, of course, because IP Telephony isn’t easy to do or keep running. Let me suggest that cheaper mobile telephony means less overall demand and therefore less pay in the future.